The standard deviation effect (or why one should sit first base playing blackjack)

Abstract

For a balanced cardcounting system we study the random variable of the true count after a number of cards are removed from the remaining deck and we prove a close formula for its standard deviation. As expected, the formula shows that the standard deviation increases with the number of cards removed. This creates a "standard deviation effect" with a two fold consequence: longer long run and presumably larger fluctuations of the bankroll, but a small gain in playing accuracy for the player sitting third base. The opposite happens for the player sitting first base. Thus the optimal position in casino blackjack in terms of shorter long run is first base.