'Animal spirits' and expectations in U.S. recession forecasting
Elliott Middleton
Abstract
A two-variable model is developed to forecast the probability of recession in the U.S. economy. Like many others, the model uses data a year or more old to explain movements of a dichotomous dependent variable for recession. The innovation of the present effort is the introduction of a confidence variable, which appears to increase the qualitative accuracy and structural stability of the model in validation testing compared to others.
Create a lesson
Related papers
Stochastic resonance in adaptive dynamical networks
Vladimir V. Semenov
Collective Sensing as Emergent Bayesian Inference
Conor Heins
Dimension-dependent order parameter selection in higher-order Kuramoto dynamics on spheres: continuous versus quantized regimes
Hyungjin Huh, Dohyun Kim
Recovery Random Walks and Extreme Events on Complex Networks
Karan Singh, Narendran R. V., V. K. Chandrasekar et al.
Delay-induced multistability in one-dimensional swarmalators with common intrinsic frequency
Rommel Tchinda Djeudjo, Timoteo Carletti, Kevin P. O'Keeffe
Global synchronization of topological signals with time-delayed interactions
Wilfried Segnou, Thierry Njougouo, Diego Garlaschelli et al.