Neural network prediction of geomagnetic activity: a method using local H\"{o}lder exponents

Abstract

Local scaling and singularity properties of solar wind and geomagnetic time series were analysed using H\"{o}lder exponents $\alpha$. It was shown that in analysed cases due to multifractality of fluctuations $\alpha$ changes from point to point. We argued there exists a peculiar interplay between regularity / irregularity and amplitude characteristics of fluctuations which could be exploited for improvement of predictions of geomagnetic activity. To this end layered backpropagation artificial neural network model with feedback connection was used for the study of the solar wind - magnetosphere coupling and prediction of geomagnetic $D_{st}$ index. The solar wind input was taken from principal component analysis of interplanetary magnetic field, proton density and bulk velocity. Superior network performance was achieved in cases when the information on local H\"{o}lder exponents was added to the input layer.