Reactions to extreme events: moving threshold model
Eduardo G. Altmann, Sarah Hallerberg, Holger Kantz
Abstract
In spite of precautions to avoid the harmful effects of extreme events, we experience recurrently phenomena that overcome the preventive barriers. These barriers usually increase drastically right after the occurrence of such extreme events, but steadily decay in their absence. In this paper we consider a simple model that mimics the evolution of the protection barriers to study the efficiency of the system's reaction to extreme events and how it changes our perception of the sequence of extreme events itself. We obtain that the usual method of fighting extreme events introduces a periodicity in their occurrence and is generally less efficient than the use of a constant barrier. On the other hand, it shows a good adaptation to the presence of slow non-stationarities.
Create a lesson
Related papers
Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation of floor response spectra under combined seismic and structural parameter uncertainties
Nils Baillie, Baptiste Kerleguer, Cyril Feau et al.
Parameter inference from a non-stationary unknown process using statistical feature-based slow feature analysis
Kieran S. Owens, Masako Tamaki, Ben D. Fulcher
A Probability Model for Pentagonal Prism Dice Rolls
Paul R. Hurst, J. Naleo Hyde
Geometry-native machine learning reconstruction of DSMC moment fields with support monitoring
Ehsan Roohi
Multivariate amplitude analysis of the cascade particle decays based on the Nearest Neighbors fitting
I. V. Yeletskikh, A. O. Vasyukov
The geometry of uncertainty decomposition in profile-likelihood fits
Rafael Coelho Lopes de Sá