Can we believe in high climate sensitivity?

Abstract

The climate response to anthropogenic forcing has long been one of the dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change (Houghton et al, 2001). Many observationally-based estimates of climate sensitivity (S) have been presented in recent years, with most of them assigning significant probability to extremely high sensitivity, such as P(S>6C)>5%. However, closer examination reveals that these estimates are based on a number of implausible implicit assumptions. We explain why these estimates cannot be considered credible and therefore have no place in the decision-making process. In fact, when basic probability theory is applied and reasonable assumptions are made, much greater confidence in a moderate value for S (~2.5C) is easily justified, with S very unlikely to be as high as 4.5C.