Effects of internal fluctuations on the spreading of Hantavirus

Abstract

We study the spread of Hantavirus over a host population of deer mice using a population dynamics model. We show that taking into account the internal fluctuations in the mouse population due to its discrete character strongly alters the behaviour of the system. In addition to the familiar transition present in the deterministic model, the inclusion of internal fluctuations leads to the emergence of an additional deterministically hidden transition. We determine parameter values that lead to maximal propagation of the disease, and discuss some implications for disease prevention policies.