Quantum Key Distribution Beyond Stationary Channels

Abstract

Quantum key distribution (QKD) over non-stationary channels, such as satellite links, is characterized by short, high-loss, and strongly fluctuating transmission windows that produce sparse detection events. In many QKD protocols, these data must be analyzed using non-IID statistical inequalities, yet existing methods either become loose for small sample sizes or heavily rely on fine-tuning, yielding poor estimates when the optical channel is mis-modeled. Using mixture martingale techniques, we introduce tight concentration inequalities that retain sharpness when the channel model is accurate, while remaining robust to model mismatch. In realistic simulations of satellite QKD with fluctuating loss, the resulting bounds can reduce the minimum required number of transmitted signals by more than $70\%$.