PMM-IMSRG emulator for the nuclear equation of state with quantified uncertainties

Abstract

We introduce a hybrid emulator for in-medium similarity renormalization group (IMSRG) calculations of nuclear matter, based on chiral nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions and an implicit-reduced-basis method emulator constructed from parametric matrix models (PMMs) which is capable of rigorously estimating its uncertainties via conformal predictions. The resulting PMM-IMSRG emulator enables fast and accurate predictions with trustworthy confidence intervals of the nuclear equation of state (EOS) across a wide range of input parameters, including low-energy couplings, IMSRG flow parameters, densities, and basis sizes. This framework provides the foundation for principled uncertainty quantification of the nuclear EOS and enables computationally demanding applications such as Bayesian parameter estimation using our IMSRG calculations. As a first application, we present results for the coupling constants of the two quark-mass-dependent three-nucleon interactions, recently identified to contribute at next-to-next-to-leading order in the chiral expansion based on a renormalization-group analysis, by fitting them to empirical saturation properties. We then propagate both parametric and emulator uncertainties to the EOS in the limits of pure neutron matter and symmetric nuclear matter.