Predicting Atmospheric Re-entries Using Segmented M/A Calibration of Public TLE Data

Abstract

We present a reproducible method for predicting atmospheric re-entries using only publicly available Two-Line Elements (TLEs). The approach is based on a segmented calibration of the effective mass-to-area ratio (M/A), adjusted independently over intervals of at least 12 hours to suppress short-period catalogue noise. Longer segments provide a stable dynamical signal from which the effective drag behaviour can be retrieved. Applied to recent natural re-entries of rocket bodies, debris, and non-manoeuvring satellites, the method consistently identifies the final orbital revolution and reproduces published Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) times with an accuracy of approximately +/- 1 hour in the terminal phase. The limiting factor is the intrinsic noise and cadence of the TLE catalogue rather than atmospheric or solar-flux modelling. Within these constraints, segmented M/A calibration offers a transparent, lightweight, and operationally robust alternative for re-entry analysis when only public data are available.