Earth rotation turns event timing into a geometric probe of UHE neutrino origin

Abstract

It has been proposed that the ultra-high-energy (UHE) event $\rm KM3-230213A$ detected by KM3NeT could be explained by dark matter (DM) decay. Prima facie this seems unlikely because the arrival direction of the event is opposite to the Galactic Centre. We develop a per-event test statistic to quantitively assess this possibility and forecast the required future events to exclude the DM hypothesis in favour of an isotropic signal. For the single event observed, the DM decay hypothesis is disfavoured but not excluded ($p\text{-value}_{\rm DM}\simeq0.13$--$0.15$). We emphasise how including the time-averaged detector visibility helps discrimination despite reducing the proportion of visible sky, reducing the number of events for exclusion from $\sim33$--$43$ to $\sim22$--$27$. Moving beyond this, we perform a fully time-resolved forecast and find that the required number of events for exclusion reduces by $40\%$, $\sim14$--$16$. The time variation in the signal provides vital information allowing one to exclude or confirm the DM hypothesis with much fewer events. Our results are robust against DM decay channels and halo distributions and can readily be applied to other relics distributed similarly. Our framework allows one to turn event timing into a probe of signal geometry and is generic to any UHE equatorial neutrino telescopes.