Global coal trade is resilient to maritime chokepoints

Abstract

Maritime chokepoints and their potential disruption of global trade in energy find renewed attention. We analyse global trade in coal, and find that trade volumes and prices are highly resilient to maritime chokepoints. Feasible chokepoints do not truly sever supply from the seaborne market. Effects on costs and revenues are further moderated by relatively large potential for re-routing of bilateral trade flows, with countries switching to alternative suppliers or consumers. We assess costs to importers would rise by as little as 0.5 \$/t or less in case of closures of most feasible chokepoints. The exception is a restriction to maritime traffic in the South and East China Sea, which could raise costs by 10 \$/t for China, whilst reducing costs for other importers in the region by similar levels. Maritime chokepoints do create geographical separation of regional markets, with differentiated effects on costs to importers and revenues to exporters in different regions.