Diagnosing High-Performance BFT Consensus via Mixture Modeling of Block Time Distributions

Abstract

High-performance Byzantine Fault Tolerant (BFT) blockchains are designed to achieve high throughput and low latency, yet their observed block time distributions often reveal complex behaviors arising from networking, pipelining, and deployment heterogeneity. In this paper, we diagnose HotStuff-based high-performance BFT consensus by modeling block times through a quorum-based multicast framework that links each block interval to quorum formation latency. We capture multimodal block time distributions using mixture models, where each component represents a distinct network condition characterized by effective transfer rate of block information. The proposed model is fitted to the bulk of mainnet block time data, while tail decay is analyzed separately to assess asymptotic behavior. Applying this methodology to Hyperliquid and Aptos mainnets, we find that Hyperliquid is well explained by a unimodal distribution, consistent with a relatively homogeneous validator deployment. In contrast, Aptos exhibits persistent multimodal structure and a pronounced shift following a consensus upgrade, reflecting heterogeneous deployments and diverse communication paths. These results demonstrate that mixture modeling of block time provides a practical and informative diagnostic tool for analyzing and monitoring high-performance BFT consensus.