Vulnerability Modeling for the Adaptation of Physical Systems to Climate Change Extremes

Abstract

Climate change is modifying the frequency and intensity of extreme hazards in a non-uniform spatial manner, increasing the risk of damage for existing physical systems. Vulnerability modeling based on vulnerability curves provides a quantitative link between hazard intensity and physical damage, supporting adaptation strategies. This paper proposes conceptual frameworks for vulnerability models of physical systems in the context of climate change, aimed at supporting vulnerability based adaptation. A theoretical use case illustrates the methodology: potential damage on power transmission towers facing wind gust hazards across France, modeled through vulnerability curves. Despite strong assumptions, this theoretical case study demonstrates how vulnerability models can guide adaptation by reducing intrinsic vulnerability, adapting the physical system to maintain acceptable damage levels under evolving climate extremes.