Recent Sharp Rise in Inhomogeneous Hydrological Extremes Stress Vegetation Growth in China

Abstract

The intensifying spatial inhomogeneity of rainfall under greenhouse warming implies that more inhomogeneous hydrological extremes (IHEs), i.e., coexistence of extreme rainfall or drought, may be triggered. While vegetation growth in China is sensitive to hydrological hazards, the variability of IHEs and their ecological impacts remain underexplored. Here, we find a significant increase in IHEs during China's growing season since 2000 (+2.1 events or +14.52 days per decade), with a rapid sharp rise to an annual average of 6.4 events or 42.0 days in the past five years. The primary driver is the enhanced inhomogeneity of moisture-dynamic coupled weather conditions, overlapping with a northward shift of climatological precipitation distribution. This results in a "Wet-North and Dry-South" pattern of IHE impacts, which poses severe and asymmetric threats to vegetation growth in China, with the expansion of drought areas exerts stronger stress on vegetation than the compensatory effects of rainfall. Our findings suggest that the sharp rises of IHEs tend to yield net negative impacts on vegetation growth, highlighting the need for stronger hydrological management to reduce future risks.