From population norms to personalized trajectories: interpretable Bayesian forecasting for cognitive decline

Abstract

The timing and rate of cognitive decline vary substantially between individuals, limiting the ability of fixed population-level thresholds to determine whether a new observation represents meaningful change for an individual. We developed Personalized Risk Inference via Sequential Monitoring (PRISM), an interpretable framework for individualized longitudinal forecasting of cognitive decline. PRISM estimates a personalized cognitive baseline from routinely collected demographic, health, and functional variables using an Explainable Boosting Machine, then updates this expectation through Bayesian inference with temporal decay as cognitive scores accrue. Decline is evaluated relative to an age-adjusted personal anchor, with uncertainty quantified through posterior probabilities. We evaluated PRISM in 30,664 adults from the Health and Retirement Study and externally validated it in 1,866 Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative participants. Forecasting performance was compared with demographic-norm and cumulative-average baselines, and discrimination with a linear mixed-effects model. PRISM identified emerging decline before study-defined cognitive worsening in 31% of sustained decliners in the Health and Retirement Study and 41% in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, with median lead times of 6 and 2 years, respectively. By the time of worsening, 68% and 56% had been identified. PRISM also achieved lower forecasting error than demographic-norm and cumulative-average baselines and distinguished worsening from stable trajectories better than a linear mixed-effects model, particularly early in follow-up. PRISM enables earlier, interpretable, uncertainty-aware detection of cognitive decline relative to each individual's expected trajectory using routinely collected data. It may support closer monitoring and timely assessment when personal longitudinal history is limited.