The Impact of Demand Forecasting on Delay and Jitter in DVB-Based Beam-Hopping LEO Networks

Abstract

In LEO satellite networks utilizing beam hopping (BH), resource allocation plans must be committed well in advance. This inherent operational delay necessitates predicting future user demand during the planning phase. Such predictive agility is particularly crucial for military applications, where unpredictable tactical environments demand low-latency, resilient communication links. However, existing forecasting models are typically evaluated based on standalone accuracy, ignoring their cross-layer impact on overall network performance. To address this gap, we evaluate two distinct demand forecasting solutions within a comprehensive, full-stack LEO satellite simulation compliant with DVB-S2X standards. Beyond prediction accuracy, we examine how incorporating user demand forecasts into BH plan generation impacts key network metrics, particularly delay and jitter. We evaluate these forecasting solutions alongside a static allocation baseline. Our results demonstrate that forecast-based dynamic planning reduces delay by 10-40% across the beams under certain load conditions compared to static allocation methods. Crucially, marginal improvements in predictive accuracy do not translate into proportional network metric gains. While the evaluated forecasting solutions differ by 14-16% in Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE), this discrepancy yields less than a 1% reduction in delay and produces nearly identical jitter characteristics. These findings suggest that when designing user demand forecasting solutions for practical LEO deployments, prioritizing system scalability may be more valuable than chasing minor accuracy enhancements.