Estimated Demand for Mega-Constellation Internet Service

Abstract

The near-term growth of the commercial space economy and sustainability of the low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment depends on the commercial prospects of large LEO satellite telecommunications constellations (``mega-constellations''). If successful, mega-constellations can spur competition between launch providers, which may lead to lower launch prices. They may also demand orbital sustainability services and/or generate additional collision risk, which may in turn affect space sustainability interests. Consumer demand for mega-constellations' internet services is critical to their commercial success. This analysis presents a method to estimate consumer demand for mega-constellations' internet services, using SpaceX's Starlink over December 2021--November 2023 as an example. This analysis finds that Starlink users are highly concentrated in the wealthiest countries. It also finds that consumer demand for Starlink is growing more slowly than orbital capacity is being added and more slowly than demand for non-Starlink internet overall. Continuation of these trends may indicate that the market for mega-constellation internet is less lucrative than previous forecasts have indicated.