Online Learning of Scale Parameters in Score-Driven Filters

Abstract

A score-driven filter multiplies its scaled log-likelihood score by a scale parameter. We call this coefficient the gain and learn it online. Given the current state and realised scaled score, each admissible gain selects a reachable next state and predictive density. A scalar gain moves along a line; diagonal gains control coordinatewise transmission and may change direction. We evaluate gain selection using a one-step predictive Kullback--Leibler objective. In the scalar unscaled case, the negative consecutive-score product is a stochastic gradient; the positive product used in accelerated recursions is a descent direction. Positive scalar score scaling changes only the effective learning rate. Monotone differentiable gain links induce mirror-descent geometry, while persistence adds a Bregman pull towards a reference gain. Under convexity, compactness, integrability, and schedule conditions, projected and discounted mirror updates satisfy dynamic-regret bounds relative to time-varying, current-information comparators. Simulations isolate score scaling, link geometry, persistence, and coordinatewise gains. Across twelve equity indices, the bounded discounted-logistic gain records a lower out-of-sample mean negative log score than the constant gain in eleven markets, although market-level evidence is mixed. It also avoids the extreme transients of the numerically capped exponential-link benchmark. Improvements are largest in markets spanning multiple crises.