Ensemble-level loopy message passing with generalized-edge closure for percolation

Abstract

Predicting the percolation threshold of highly clustered networks from local statistics remains difficult, because short loops break the independence assumption underlying tree-like message passing. Existing remedies address loopy connectivity either through prescribed local motifs in random-graph ensembles or through a single network's realized topology, leaving an ensemble-level treatment of arbitrary connectivity patterns absent. Here, we develop a loopy message-passing framework for random clustered graph ensembles based on generalized-edge statistics, which characterize overlap patterns among the neighborhoods of different nodes. This yields a progressively refined approximation scheme based on neighborhoods of increasing size around each node. The low-order approximations recover previous equations for random network ensembles, and the new result that yields refined threshold prediction is developed by the second-order approximation. We show that the effectiveness of this framework depends not only on short-cycle density but also on the internal consistency of generalized edges. To diagnose this effectiveness, we introduce the generalized-edge closure coefficient (GECC) to quantify this consistency. Because GECC is computed entirely from local statistics and does not rely on any percolation calculation, it serves as an a priori diagnostic for the reliability of the approximation. Using synthetic and real networks, the threshold is evaluated via the second-order and lower-order approximations. Comparisons with Monte Carlo simulations show that GECC captures key structural features that strongly affect the percolation threshold. These results establish ensemble-based loopy message passing as an efficient route for predicting the percolation threshold in large clustered networks.