Conditional Regime Analog Forecasting with Trajectories: A Nonparametric Framework for Multivariate Probabilistic

Abstract

We propose Conditional Regime Analog Forecasting with Trajectories (CRAFT), a nonparametric framework for multivariate probabilistic time-series prediction. The method constructs paired backward and forward trajectory profiles from cumulative multi-horizon returns, learns recurrent low-dimensional regime labels in both spaces using singular value decomposition, change-point segmentation, and segment clustering, and estimates a backward-to-forward conditional regime correspondence. Forecast distributions are obtained by sampling historically realized future trajectory profiles according to a composite compatibility score that combines future-regime correspondence with similarity to the current backward trajectory profile. Unlike parametric vector autoregressions or Gaussian state-space models, CRAFT preserves empirical cross-sectional and multi-horizon dependence by resampling complete future paths. We describe the estimator, its diagnostics, and a reproducible simulation benchmark comparing CRAFT with direct analog resampling, SVD analogs, unconditional bootstrap, OLS VAR bootstrap, and random-forest forecasts.