Long-window 4DVar for reanalysis using a differentiable weather model

Abstract

Atmospheric reanalyses combine observations with model forecasts using complex data assimilation systems. We test whether a differentiable weather model permits a simpler and more accurate method based on a long-window four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) formulation that omits the conventional background-error term. The method uses automatic differentiation to find optimal NeuralGCM initial conditions that minimize the misfit to real surface-pressure observations distributed across overlapping windows of two to seven days, assuming no model error. Cycling at 6-hour intervals for three months beginning 1 January 2015 yields a stable reanalysis with smaller error relative to ERA5 in 500-hPa geopotential height than the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), which uses an ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate the same observations. Every window produces smaller errors than 20CRv3, with analysis error for the four-day window approximately 55% smaller than for 20CRv3. At the end of the four-day window, which does not benefit from future observations, error remains approximately 38% smaller than 20CRv3. Analyses degrade slightly beyond four days, which we attribute to the increasing importance of model error.