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Sharp Phase Transition for Ellipsoid Fitting

Sofia de la Cerda, Aaron Potechin, Madhur Tulsiani, Jeff Xu

math.PRarXiv:2608.12415

Abstract

We resolve the ellipsoid fitting conjecture of Saunderson, Chandrasekaran, Parrilo, and Willsky up to a vanishing factor. Concretely, for m independent Gaussian points in dimension d, we show that with high probability, for m ≤ (1-od(1)) · d2/4, there exists a centered ellipsoid passing through all m points; for m≥ (1+od(1) )· d2/4, no such ellipsoid exists. This confirms that the ellipsoid fitting problem has a sharp phase transition at d2/4.

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