Polarization of GRB standard X-ray afterglow and its detection prospects by eXTP

Abstract

The polarization signatures of Gamma-ray Burst (GRB) afterglows serve as a powerful diagnostic tool for studying their environments and jet physics. This work systematically investigates the X-ray (2--8~keV) polarization properties of standard GRB afterglows and assesses their detectability with the Polarimetry Focusing Array aboard the enhanced X-ray Timing and Polarimetry (eXTP) satellite. A Morris global sensitivity analysis is first conducted to identify the dominant parameters, which are then assigned observationally motivated probability distributions. In particular, the isotropic energy, half-opening angle, and initial Lorentz factor are sampled jointly via a Gaussian copula to reproduce the empirical Ghirlanda and Liang correlations. Monte Carlo simulations of $10^{3}$ afterglows are performed and validated against the observed 10~keV flux distributions of a selected Fermi--Swift sample (K--S $p = 0.29$ at $10^{3}~\mathrm{s}$ and $p = 0.18$ at $10^{4}~\mathrm{s}$). The simulations yield an overall polarization event rate of $\lesssim 1.5\%$ for standard GRB X-ray afterglows with eXTP/PFA, reflecting the intrinsically low polarization produced by a random magnetic field confined to the shock plane. The optimal detection window occurs near the jet break at late times, when the PD peaks. For exceptionally luminous events such as GRB~221009A, however, the PD remains above the MDP over the full interval $10^{3}$--$10^{6}~\mathrm{s}$, demonstrating that eXTP/PFA can capture nearly the entire polarization evolution for such rare, bright bursts.