Shift or curtail? How much data-center flexibility is worth depends on the host power grid

Abstract

Data-center growth risks overbuilding power grid infrastructure and stranding capital. Flexible data-center operation can defer infrastructure investments, but its value depends on the flexibility mechanism and the host power grid characteristics. We classify data-center load as firm, flexible or interruptible, and embed them in capacity expansion applied to market-organized, fossil-heavy PJM and carbon-capped, centrally coordinated Korea. In PJM, the flexibility value is spatial: shifting workloads between zones reduces system cost by 6% in 2028 and 19% in 2038, avoiding 4.4 GW and 8.9 GW of gas and nuclear generation. In Korea, it is temporal: shifting load into midday solar hours makes 0.5 GW of additional solar worth building in 2028 and avoids 1.2 GW of gas and 0.3 GW of batteries in 2038. In both, realistic event-shape limits diminish the value of curtailment. The results show that flexibility procurement and its value are driven by grid characteristics and policy objectives.