Causal inference via propensity scores for case-control studies

Abstract

Propensity score methods for causal inference are increasingly being used in cohort and experimental designs, but their development and uptake in outcome-dependent sampling schemes, such as case-control studies, remains limited. Case-control studies involve the sampling of individuals with and without an outcome of interest with the goal of estimating the effects of past exposures. When the design is observational, statistical adjustment for confounding bias is necessary. In case-control studies, propensity score models can be fit using control data under the assumption that the controls are representative of the source population with respect to their exposure distribution conditional on covariates ("control exchangeability"). In this paper, we first demonstrate that relative effects, such as causal risk ratios, are estimable under three different case-control design variants using control-fitted propensity scores. We appropriate two existing estimators for these designs: inverse probability of treatment weighting and an efficient and doubly robust estimator. We also introduce a novel two-step propensity score caliper-matching procedure for case-control designs. We introduce novel diagnostic tools to verify two necessary types of overlap. We then contrast our estimators using simulated data and apply them to examine the association between regular aspirin use and ovarian cancer risk.