Temporal Risk on Satellites

Abstract

Satellite vulnerabilities change over time as orbits shift, power margins tighten, and the space environment deteriorates. However, most cybersecurity risk frameworks still treat threats as static. In practice, the same exploit can be far more damaging during a critical maneuver than during routine operations. We propose a temporal risk assessment framework that makes time an explicit axis in satellite security analysis. It extends existing adversary behavior taxonomies with a five-dimensional temporal capability model and estimates exploitation difficulty across distinct temporal windows of a mission. Rather than producing a single risk score, the framework outputs a series of time-indexed likelihood-impact matrices. It discretizes missions into operationally meaningful time windows and environmental bands to show when systems are most exposed. This view helps operators avoid scheduling sensitive operations in high-risk periods and align defensive resources with a threat landscape that shifts over time.