Data-Driven Characterisation of Wave-Forced Turbulence Using Time-Resolved Forecast-Error Growth

Abstract

Periodic surface-wave forcing can reorganise turbulent flows through coherent spectral response, synchronization, intermittency, and changes in short-term predictability, so its dynamical effect need not vary monotonically with forcing frequency. We reanalyse laboratory acoustic Doppler velocimetry records obtained at constant discharge under four conditions (0, 0.5, 0.67, and 1~Hz) using one common KNN--GMAE forecast-error-growth protocol. A distance-weighted $k$-nearest-neighbour predictor generates out-of-sample forecasts over multiple horizons, and the slope of the early quasi-linear region of $\ln(\mathrm{GMAE})$ versus physical forecast time is reported as a finite-horizon forecast-error-growth rate, $\lFEG$. For the full 120-s records, $\lFEG$ is 5.68, 0.85, 3.39, and 4.11~s$^{-1}$ for 0, 0.5, 0.67, and 1~Hz, respectively. The ordering 0~Hz $>$ 1~Hz $>$ 0.67~Hz $>$ 0.5~Hz is preserved in all seven nearby parameter configurations, indicating that the comparative result is not an artefact of a single KNN setting. A 40-s sliding-window analysis with a 10-s step reveals substantial temporal structure. The no-wave condition remains predominantly high and the 0.5-Hz condition predominantly low, whereas the 1-Hz record has weaker local support for a single exponential-growth regime: only 3 of 9 windows satisfy the adopted early-fit criterion $\RFEG\geq0.90$, compared with 8/9, 7/9, and 7/9 for 0, 0.5, and 0.67~Hz.