Robust lane-change intention anticipation under uncertainty based on a recursive Bayesian filtering approach

Abstract

In this paper we discuss and analyze a method for lane-change intention anticipation of drivers on highways based on kinematic features and surrounding observations. The approach makes use of a recursive Bayesian filtering strategy, which can be interpreted as a hidden Markov model. We present two models for the likelihood term and show how they can handle missing observations. An additional focus of the work lies on calibrating the obtained probabilities in order to obtain reliable predictions. The introduced approach is evaluated in practice on the highD dataset and compared to several other baseline methods. Particular emphasize is put on evaluating the robustness and temporal consistency as well as calibration of the developed algorithm. Extensive numerical experiments allow for a careful performance assessment and detailed discussion of advantages and limitations of the different methodologies.