Embedding NDRE Trajectories into Contrastive Learning for Label-Free, Physiology-Aware Crop-Stress Staging and DSS Outputs

Abstract

Timely detection of crop stress is critical for sustaining yields under increasing drought frequency, yet conventional vegetation index thresholds or image-based clustering often fail to capture stress progression, limiting their value for farm decision-making. To address this gap, we present EigenCL, a physiology-guided contrastive learning framework that stages crop stress from Sentinel-2 NDRE trajectories, with the goal of providing interpretable and transferable stress diagnostics for decision support systems (DSS). EigenCL was trained on 10,000 maize NDRE patches from drought-affected Iowa fields in 2020 and tested on Nebraska fields in 2023 without retraining, with validation incorporating soil-moisture records, U.S. Drought Monitor maps, and county-level yield statistics. The model produced four physiologically coherent stress clusters (Healthy, Mild, Moderate, Severe), significantly outperforming baselines including K-Means, SimCLR, ProtoCLR, and an ablation model (Silhouette = 0.748, DBI = 0.35, CHI = 49,624). Clusters aligned with maize growth stages, with severe stress peaking around tasseling-silking (VT-R1), a stage known to drive yield loss; moreover, EigenCL clusters correlated with soil moisture at 0-14-day lags (rho up to 0.72) and matched yield anomalies in drought-affected counties. By embedding NDRE trajectory dynamics into contrastive learning, EigenCL enables early stress alerts and interpretable DSS outputs (e.g., heatmaps, scouting priorities, regional risk indices), extending beyond single-date NDRE thresholds and supporting scalable monitoring for climate-smart agronomy.