Co-Optimized Generation, Transmission, and Storage Expansion: System Value and Optimal Duration of Pumped-Storage Hydropower

Abstract

Expansion planning models usually fix storage duration before optimization, setting how much storage power to build but not for how long it can discharge. We present a generation-transmission-storage expansion framework in which candidates of many durations compete on annualized cost, making the duration mix an optimization outcome. It is a rolling-horizon, two-stage stochastic linear program, each five-year stage is a full year at hourly resolution under ten coherent inflow, wind, and solar scenarios. We apply it to the Brazilian Interconnected System over 2030-2050, where demand roughly doubles to 1,716 TWh/year and variable renewable energy (VRE) supplies most new capacity. Two cases are compared: 36 pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) candidates over four subsystems and nine durations (4-144 h) alongside 4-h battery energy storage systems (BESS), and BESS alone. With PSH available, the model builds 31.2 GW / 755 GWh of PSH and no BESS, dominated by 12-h capacity with 4.9 GW of 72-h units. Without PSH it builds 38 GW / 152 GWh of BESS and 7.8 GW more gas-fired capacity, mostly open-cycle peakers. PSH lowers 2050 annualized system cost by US$ 5.0 billion/year (6.8%), operating cost by 23.5%, thermal generation by 34 TWh/year, and long-run marginal cost by 20%; 2035 VRE curtailment falls from 8.4% to 3.2%. The magnitudes are specific to Brazil, but the underlying mechanism is general: limiting storage candidates to a single duration understates the system's optimal energy-storage requirement and overstates its residual need for thermal capacity.