A Multilevel Interacting Particle System Method for the estimation of Failure Probabilities

Abstract

We propose a novel method that combines a multilevel decomposition with the framework of Interacting Particle Systems to compute the probability that given quantities of interest take values above or below a certain pre-specified value. Through the application of a sequential sampling scheme, the algorithm is able to achieve convergence rates faster than those achieved by the classical Multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm, and competes with the current state of the art techniques, while also being dimension independent. Furthermore, the sample points generated by the algorithm form a sequence which concentrates near the critical value of the quantity of interest. Our results are rigorously established and later verified through numerical experiments.