Operations, Maintenance, and Industrial Scaling of MW-Class Orbital Data Centers

Abstract

Megawatt-class orbital data centers require continuous maintenance, replacement, inventory, and service capacity in addition to spacecraft power/thermal systems. We formulate an analytical lifecycle framework for permanent/transient failures, modular orbital replacement units, robotic servicing, spare inventory, scheduled technology refresh, correlated faults, cybersecurity, optional human support. The model combines nonhomogeneous component hazards, capacity-weighted availability, multiclass robotic-service capacity, Poisson base-stock inventory, replacement-flow accounting, human-support break-even relations. For a 1 MW cluster with 10 active 100 kW nodes, 1 reserve node, ~200 5 kW compute cartridges, low, nominal, high deployed-mass allocations span ~50-75 kg/kW. Assumptions yield 70.2 random or life-limited interventions and 323-349 planned refresh operations/(MW-year), for a total of 393-419 standardized operations/(MW-year). Analysis gives a first-generation logistics of 5.3-9.0 t/(MW-year), with a nominal case of ~ 6.6 t/(MW year), 560-700 productive robot-hors/(MW-year). Planned refresh exceeds random replacement under the stated component populations, hazards, 3-15-year intervals. At ~400 standardized operations/(MW-year), the post-internal-recovery exception probability is <$10^{-3}$, with an objective near $10^{-4}$ at large scale; terminal non-recovery $p_U$ requires a smaller mission-level allocation. The target catastrophic-loss hazard for a 100 kW node is 0.01-0.03 1/yr. Parametric workload and cost cases place contingency visits at 10s of MWs, periodic campaigns at 10-100s of MWs, dedicated personnel at several 100 MWs to GWs. The reference first deployment is uncrewed, autonomously fault-managed, robotically maintainable, supported by specific inventory based on a 6-month replenishment horizon, compatible with later human access without permanent habitation.