Below-threshold Bistability and Implementation Lag in a Simplex Model of Radical Vote-Share Dynamics

Abstract

We study a nonautonomous compartmental model on the probability simplex for radical vote-share dynamics under delayed policy implementation. The model distinguishes a target regime from an effective regime that adjusts with finite speed and includes a persistent alienation reservoir that can later be mobilised by radical actors. In a symmetric benchmark, persistent alienation destroys the global one-threshold picture: below the local instability threshold, a radical-free centrist--alienated equilibrium may coexist with a stable positive equilibrium, separated by a saddle branch created in a saddle-node bifurcation. By hyperbolic persistence, this coexistence survives near the symmetric baseline, while numerical exploration identifies a wider bistable region under asymmetric perturbations. Delayed implementation further separates target and effective threshold passage, producing a parameter-space lag and an additional state-space lag before a visible response in radical support. The analysis combines a Perron--Frobenius threshold for the frozen radical-free equilibrium, a geometric characterisation of positive equilibria, local adiabatic tracking under slow uniformly subcritical drift, and explicit delay bounds for transversal threshold passage. Under initial matching, the parameter-space delay scales as \(O(κ_θ^{-1})\); in a monotone ramp example the bound is nearly attained, whereas the state-space lag is substantially larger and less sensitive to implementation speed. Thus threshold restoration is preventive rather than curative: once the trajectory enters the basin of the radicalised attractor, returning below the local threshold need not restore the radical-free regime.