Early warning signals for synchronization transitions from partial observations

Abstract

Anticipating the onset of collective synchronization is important in many networked systems, yet observing every oscillator is often impractical. We investigate whether synchronization transitions can be detected from a small set of monitored, or sentinel, nodes. Using a stochastic Kuramoto model on networks, we numerically compare three early warning signals: the local order parameter, its temporal variance, and the variance of individual oscillator phases after removing their mean rotational trends. We also compare sentinel-selection strategies based on node dynamics, degree, and random sampling. We show that, under partial observation, the local order parameter and the variance of detrended phases provide substantially stronger warning signals than the variance of the local order parameter. Selecting nodes according to their dynamical behavior near the transition consistently improves performance over other sentinel-selection methods. With only $\lfloor\ln N\rfloor$ dynamically selected sentinels, two success indicators approach the performance obtained by observing all $N$ nodes. These results demonstrate that synchronization transitions can be anticipated from sparse observations when the warning signal and monitored nodes are chosen appropriately.