QoI-Aware Provisional Rollout and Retrospective Reconciliation for Reduced-State Scientific Twins

Abstract

Scientific twins may need to continue operating when updates from an authoritative primary system are temporarily unavailable. Once synchronization resumes, the new boundary can also be used to revise the intervening history. We distinguish an immediately available causal provisional trajectory from a delayed, future-conditioned reconciled trajectory. For reduced-state twins, we introduce a deterministic, calibration-based reconciliation method. A smooth temporal bridge carries the residual observed at the next synchronization block backward through the provisional interval. An analytic energy-matching stage then applies smooth regional gains and a global rescaling to match a component-energy trajectory estimated by cubic regression in log-energy space from synchronized frames on both sides of the gap. The method uses no additional correction network and revises decoded history without changing the latent state used for later rollouts. We evaluate 64 spatial patches from 16 JHTDB isotropic-turbulence slices for both velocity components and gaps S in {4, 6, 8}. During the longest gap, field error and gradient-sensitive QoI error degrade at markedly different rates, so field error alone does not characterize provisional fidelity. At S = 8, full reconciliation reduces window-averaged NRMSE by about 60% for both components and global gradient-intensity error from 4.21% to 2.91% for vx, whereas future-aware physical interpolation reaches 20.40% on the same metric. Energy matching additionally makes the reconciled history match its boundary-inferred global energy trajectory exactly. Future boundary information therefore substantially improves scientifically relevant properties within the evaluated regime.