Average twin prime conjecture for elliptic curves in arithmetic progressions

Abstract

In 1988, Koblitz conjectured an asymptotic formula for the number of primes $p \le x$ for which the reduction of an elliptic curve over $\mathbb{Q}$ has prime order. Building on the work of Balog, Cojocaru, and David, who proved this conjecture on average in 2011, we extend the result to primes $p$ lying in arithmetic progressions. Our asymptotic formula holds uniformly for moduli up to a fixed power of $\log x$. We also show that the resulting average constant matches the theoretical constant predicted by Lee, Mayle, and Wang in 2025 using Galois representations.