Beyond Five Scale Heights: Composition- and Cloud-dependent Ariel Tier-2 Requirements for sub-Neptunes

Abstract

The Ariel Mission Candidate Sample (MCS) Tier-2 requirements provide a common screening reference by assuming a clear H$_2$/He atmosphere and a five-scale-height transmission signal. We quantify how those requirements change for 197 known planets with $1.5\leq R_{\rm p}/R_\oplus<4.0$ when composition and clouds are specified explicitly. Equilibrium-chemistry transmission spectra at $1\times$, $10\times$, and $100\times$ solar metallicity are evaluated for clear atmospheres and idealized 1-mbar cloud decks, binned to the 47 AIRS Tier-2 channels, and combined with target-specific MCS-calibrated noise curves. For each atmosphere, we calculate the number of transits required for a featureless spectrum to be rejected at a $3σ$ confidence in at least 90\% of repeated observations. The clear $1\times$-solar atmosphere closely follows the MCS prediction. At $10\times$ solar metallicity, stronger molecular opacity generally improves detectability, whereas at $100\times$ solar metallicity the increased mean molecular weight dominates and roughly doubles the required number of transits. Cloudy atmospheres follow the same non-monotonic trend but at substantially greater cost: the $1\times$-solar, 1-mbar case requires nearly an order of magnitude more transits than the MCS prediction, while the enriched cloudy cases still require several times more. Overall, in most atmospheric scenarios tested, small planets require more transits to robustly detect spectral features than listed in the MCS. A literature crossmatch further identifies Ariel targets with detected metastable helium, for which Tier-2 molecular spectra could connect lower-atmosphere composition and clouds to an extended, escaping H$_2$/He upper atmosphere.