Learning and Predicting the Nonlinear Variability of X-ray Binaries with the Koopman Operator

Abstract

X-ray variability in compact-object binaries encodes the nonlinear dynamics of corona-jet interactions and accretion disk instabilities. Standard timing techniques characterize periodic and quasi-periodic variability well, but do not model underlying nonlinear dynamics or forecast their evolution. We apply Koopman operator theory and a data-driven approximation, extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD), to X-ray light curves for the first time. Koopman theory represents nonlinear evolution as an infinite-dimensional linear operator $\mathcal{K}$, whose eigendecomposition separates a complex system into independently evolving linear modes. We derive that each Koopman eigenfunction contributes a Lorentzian peak to the power spectrum, giving quasi-periodic oscillations a dynamical interpretation in which process noise damps modes and broadens their peaks. In both chaotic Duffing oscillator simulations and $\sim$30 yr of RXTE ASM and MAXI monitoring of the X-ray binary 4U 1705-44, the slowest-varying eigenfunction partitions state space into low- and high-flux regimes, changing sign days to weeks before transitions become visible in the light curve. Iterating $\mathcal{K}$ additionally yields flux forecasts on days-to-weeks horizons. The strengths of this framework are its generality across linear and nonlinear systems, its intrinsic interpretability through decomposed modes carrying explicit dynamical meaning, and its predictive power from propagating learned dynamics forward. These results establish Koopman operator theory as a new frontier of astrophysical timing and help advance interpretable machine learning for scientific discovery and understanding.