Finite Asimov Sample Construction in Unbinned Neural Simulation-Based Inference

Abstract

Expected sensitivity calculations in frequentist analysis using neural simulation-based inference often require large simulated samples to approximate an unbinned Asimov dataset. We construct a finite weighted reference sample, for analyses based on learned density ratios, for which the generating parameters globally maximize the weighted likelihood. A toy example with five-dimensional observable space based loosely on high-energy physics models shows that an Asimov dataset consisting of as few as 256 weighted reference events closely reproduce the expected test statistic scans obtained with two million simulated reference events. The resulting test statistic distributions are also shown to agree with independent simulator-based pseudo-experiments. We note that this agreement with the simulator depends on the accuracy of the learned ratios and must be validated explicitly.