Shifting Research Funding Priorities under Geopolitical Pressure: Evidence from Estonia

Abstract

This study examines how the 2014 Donbas-war breakpoint was associated with changes in the semantic composition of research funding recorded in Estonia, a geopolitically exposed country outside the belligerent states. It combines 17,952 research-funding records from the Estonian Research Information System (ETIS) for 2000 to 2019 with a field-by-year matched OpenAlex reference corpus and geocoded Donbas conflict records. Contrastive text projections distinguish explicit-war language from dual-use technological orientation and eight crisis-relevant capability channels, allowing shifts to be detected beyond projects that directly mention war or security. Segmented annual models show positive post-2014 slope changes in dual-use and maximum-capability measures, whereas explicit-war language follows a different trajectory. Financing-weighted estimates identify positive post-2014 level differences among larger recorded projects. Capability-channel comparisons indicate the strongest positive period differences in computer science, energy, and engineering, together with a temporary narrowing of the capability profile. The results suggest that a neighboring research system can register geopolitical pressure through changes in the technical and preparedness-oriented language of funded projects. More broadly, the study demonstrates how project-level semantic evidence can reveal shifts in public science-funding priorities that remain difficult to observe through disciplinary classifications or explicit conflict terminology alone.