On a conjecture of Browning and Sawin on random hypersurfaces with sign coefficients

Abstract

Browning and Sawin conjectured that random hypersurfaces with sign coefficients are smooth with probability tending to one as the degree grows. We prove this conjecture and obtain a quantitative bound. For each $n\geq1$, a degree $d$ form in $n+1$ variables, with independent uniform coefficients in $\{-1,1\}$, defines a singular complex hypersurface with probability $O_n(d^{-1/2})$. The positive-dimensional singular loci occur with exponentially small probability. For $n\geq3$, the same exponential bound holds for failure of absolute irreducibility. These results have been formalized in Lean by AxiomProver assuming existing literature.