From trends to optimized forecasts: Quantifying the skill and advancing the utility of dynamics-based early warnings for tipping events

Abstract

In this paper we explore and extend the state of the art for understanding the skill and utility of early warnings of critical transitions (tipping points) in forced nonlinear systems. We highlight some of the challenges and opportunities of transforming estimates of a dynamics-based early warning system, based on trends in stability or resilience into forecasts with high skill. We highlight the importance of (a) quantifying consequences of possible actions in response to warnings that may be false negatives or positives (b) considering finite time horizon predictions to give verifiable predictions (c) assumptions necessary for valid extrapolations of trends. We evaluate approaches to improving the skill and utility of the forecast.