Evidence-Gated Research: Statistically Controlled Model Adoption in Adaptive Search

Abstract

Adaptive model search is path dependent: once a challenger is adopted, it becomes the reference from which later candidates are generated. A statistically unsupported replacement can therefore alter hypotheses that have not yet been proposed. We introduce Evidence-Gated Research (EGR), a statistical adoption layer for moving-incumbent search. EGR freezes each challenger before decision evidence is revealed, builds anytime-valid evidence across a predeclared set of environments, routes evidence predictably toward unresolved components, composes a persistent candidate e-value, and passes that e-value to an online controller. Under explicit conditional-validity and predictability conditions, the resulting procedure controls false discovery rate for the declared all-environment adoption target even though earlier adoptions change later challengers. In a 5,000-trajectory closed-loop benchmark, development-only e-LOND attains persistent FDR 0.621, whereas no persistent false-adoption path is observed for the audited EGR variants in that finite run. In matched replay over 600 challenger--incumbent pairs, Stagewise EGR preserves fixed-anytime alternative crossing decisions while using 56.1% less decision evidence at the representative threshold. A three-environment public-data study and a 40,000-sample controlled neural benchmark reproduce the evidence-efficiency pattern. These results identify model replacement as a distinct statistical control point in adaptive model development.