Three-dimensional Lagrangian ecosystems: carbon dynamics and potential for artificial fertilization

Abstract

Transient supplies of nutrients to the surface ocean, both natural and artificial, stimulate blooms of phytoplankton and the formation of organic matter, driving air-sea gradients and uptake of CO$_2$. However, quantifying the associated carbon budget remains challenging, as it requires tracking the coupled biophysical evolution of water masses while they are transported, stretched and diluted. Here, we present an idealized three-dimensional model that describes biomass production and carbon dynamics within a Lagrangian patch in the ocean. The framework reproduces observed biogeochemical patterns from an artificial fertilization experiment and provides integrated metrics for the local carbon budget. Utilizing large ensembles of simulations, we examine the sensitivity of patch-scale primary production and carbon uptake to biochemical and physical factors. Our results show that patch dilution can enhance the ecosystem response, and how carbon uptake is sensitive to initial injected area, horizontal divergence and vertical diffusivity. In the context of renewed interest in ocean fertilization strategies for climate mitigation, our approach can thus provide quantitative tools to assess their efficacy and potential.