Modelling the Nordic power system expansion with PyPSA-Eur: a comparison with the Nordic Grid Development Perspective 2025

Abstract

We compare the Nordic Grid Development Perspective 2025 (NGDP) with a least-cost transition pathway for the Nordic power system obtained with PyPSA-Eur for the period 2025-2050 under a net-zero CO$_2$ constraint. The model co-optimises generation, storage, and transmission expansion with hourly system operation while constraining the Nordic generation mix to remain consistent with NGDP milestone ranges. Overall, the optimised capacity pathways reproduce the broad NGDP expansion of wind and solar power, with Denmark emerging as the main locus of offshore wind and solar deployment, Finland as a major site for onshore wind expansion, and Norway and Sweden relying more strongly on existing hydropower and nuclear capacity. The main discrepancy between the two pathways does not lie in the broad build-out of variable renewables, but in the timing and role of hydrogen. Whereas the NGDP treats hydrogen as an early and steadily increasing component of industrial demand and system development already from 2030, PyPSA-Eur delays substantial hydrogen deployment until 2045-2050, when it becomes cost-effective primarily as a flexibility and seasonal storage option in a strongly variable-renewable-energy-dominated system. This contrast suggests that early hydrogen build-out in the Nordics is not a robust outcome of cost optimisation alone, but depends strongly on assumptions regarding industrial demand growth, sector coupling, and anticipatory infrastructure planning. We therefore argue that hydrogen remains the principal strategic uncertainty in the Nordic transition, with the NGDP representing a more anticipatory planning perspective and PyPSA-Eur a more conservative least-cost timing of deployment.