Finite-sample certification of coverage regret for budgeted document selection under adaptive stratified auditing

Abstract

Selecting a budget-constrained set of documentary fragments, for instance the knowledge base of a retrieval-augmented generation system, raises a statistical question: how much expected query coverage is lost relative to the best feasible selection when the query distribution is unknown? We construct finite-sample, distribution-free upper confidence bounds for this coverage regret that remain valid after data-dependent selection. A pilot stage may select the document set, screen competitors, build comparison networks and learn an annotation policy. Then an independent audit acquires relevance labels with probabilities that are constant within observable strata. The main result is a simultaneous bound for all retained coverage contrasts. The bound is made observable by empirical-Bernstein variance calibration or by a one-stage construction without calibration, and it accounts for estimated stratum proportions. For maximum-type coverage we prove variance contractions for swaps of redundant fragments, give a condition under which multiscale radii improve on a direct union bound, and show that such redundancy cannot be certified from samples alone. A simulation study confirms validity and quantifies the gains from variance calibration and certified redundancy.