Structural Dependence, Imitation or Herding? A Multi-Agent Simulation of Global Intermedia Agenda Setting

Abstract

News outlets in poorer countries cover the world much as the leading outlets of rich countries do. Two explanations compete. One says they depend on Western news agencies for lack of resources. The other says they choose to copy prestigious outlets or whoever moves first. Observation cannot tell these apart. This study measured how closely 18 national outlets in Bangladesh, Kenya, South Africa, India, Malaysia and Nigeria followed four core outlets in how much attention they gave, which angle they took and when they published, on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and two UN climate conferences in 2022-2024. It then ran a simulation in which language models acted as the outlets' editors and dependence, imitation and herding were switched on and off. Of nine tests, one held: outlets that relied more on wire copy published sooner after the core did. Tier and local stake showed no effect distinguishable from none. The herding test was supported and the imitation test was not. The simulation did not decide between the mechanisms, because the dependence rule, as fitted, reduced to publishing wire copy. Wire copy sets the clock of the periphery's foreign news. Whether it sets the agenda stays open.