The Generalised Kessler Syndrome and the Persian Gulf

Abstract

The term Kessler syndrome was coined for a runaway orbital cascade creating a high-density debris field. The idea is generalised and applied to supply chains. An additive channel enables failures to generate further failures; a subtractive channel erodes the capacity to contain and restore. When damage outpaces repair, failure becomes irreversible and the system settles into a new state. Supplies connect the theory to its application. Stocks insulate subsystems from one another, and their exhaustion exposes dependencies. For the Persian Gulf states, restrictions on maritime supplies from spring 2026 are inadequately compensated by air and road transport alternatives. This depletes inventories unevenly across products and impairs the functioning of the logistics system itself. Throughput optimisation builds fragility everywhere; the Gulf is where it is becoming visible, with the Strait of Hormuz restriction as the trigger. Formulated as a Kelly portfolio allocation under a weakest-link payoff, the optimal strategy concentrates resources on the lagging rather than the leading inputs.