The Neural Density Model: An Open 3D Thermospheric Density Reanalysis for 2003--2026 From Tracked Space Debris

Abstract

Thermospheric mass density controls satellite drag but is observed directly by few missions, and the leading operational product (HASDM) relies on non-public radar data. We present the Neural Density Model (NDM), a 3D density reanalysis for October 2003--October 2026 at 250--800~km. Previous approaches either convert the orbital decay of tracked objects into point densities or correct empirical models with a few global scale factors. NDM instead fits a spatially resolved neural correction to NRLMSISE-00 directly to the observed decay of 600--800 objects per year, through a differentiable drag operator, jointly with their ballistic coefficients, calibration spheres and accelerometer densities. On withheld satellites the median error is 0.078 (natural-log units), against 0.101 for HASDM and 0.310 for NRLMSISE-00; NDM has the smaller bias, HASDM slightly smaller scatter. On Spire GNSS orbits, never used in training, NDM and HASDM perform comparably. NDM uses only public observations.