A Century-Long Archival Search and Analysis of the Rubin Observatory-Discovered Dwarf Planet Candidate 2026 ED$_{138}$

Abstract

The trans-Neptunian object (TNO) 2026 ED$_{138}$ was discovered in early data from the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory, and recovered in Dark Energy Camera images back to 2016. With an absolute magnitude of $H_V = 3.11 \pm 0.05$ mag, it is one of the largest known TNOs, with a diameter of 635-1590 km for geometric albedos between 0.25 and 0.04. Its position far to the south and close to the galactic plane kept it hidden in images that recorded it for decades. Here, we present archival observations of 2026 ED$_{138}$ spanning 89 years: twelve photographic plates taken between 1954 and 2000, a marginal detection on a 1937 Harvard plate, 2010-2017 VISTA near-infrared images, 2016-2020 SkyMapper images, and ten years of ATLAS photometry. The archival positions improve the long-term ephemeris fivefold, and we predict 15 occultations of $G \leq 16.5$ mag stars in 2027-2030, six of which will occur over populated land. The line of sight from Earth has turned by $\sim87^\circ$ since 1954, yet the plate magnitudes remain consistent with the present-day phase curve. Fitted plate by plate, they exclude oblate shapes with $c/a \leq 0.6$ for at least half of all spin-axis orientations and, with a present-day light curve amplitude below $\sim0.11-0.15$ mag, a Haumea-like Jacobi ellipsoid for $\sim90\%$ of them. We find a tentative 10.4 h light curve period ($\sim20.7$ h if double-peaked). Near-infrared colors place 2026 ED$_{138}$ in the BR (intermediate red) taxonomic class, with $J-H = 0.60\pm0.15$, redder than Haumea and without evidence of similar 1.5 $μ$m water-ice absorption, supporting the conclusion that it is not a Haumea-family member. $z$-band photometry also limits Eris-like methane to $\lesssim25\%$ of the surface. Integrations over $\pm1$ Gyr show it sticks to the 12:7 resonance with Neptune for tens of megayears at a time, but it rarely remains permanently captured.